Most digital agencies and service companies work on gut feeling. They look at a few deals in the pipeline, glance at ongoing projects, and hope it'll all somehow work out.

But without structured forecasting, growth remains unpredictable, hiring decisions turn into risky bets, and capacity crunches catch teams off guard every quarter.

The numbers are brutal:

• Only 20% of sales organizations achieve forecasts within 5% of projections—43% miss their targets by more than 10%

• According to Gartner, over 90% of B2B organizations rely on intuition instead of data-driven analytics—and wonder why they miss targets

• Companies using AI-powered forecasting improve forecast accuracy by up to 50%

And yet you keep hearing: "Our pipeline is too dynamic for precise planning."

Bullshit.

The Three Pillars of a Real Forecast

A reliable forecast rests on three pillars: open opportunities, ongoing projects, and planned retainers or subscriptions. Together, they form a complete picture of future workload and revenue.

1. Open Offers & Opportunities: Weighted Probability Instead of Wishful Thinking

Open offers represent future revenue waiting to happen. But not every offer closes. The art lies in tracking realistic close probabilities.

A digital agency in Hamburg—founded in 2019, about 20 employees, specialized in e-commerce—had a problem in 2023: The sales team rated every open deal at "90% probability." The result: The forecast was permanently too optimistic, capacity was planned incorrectly, and twice a year management had to explain why the quarter came in 30% under plan. After introducing weighted pipeline forecasting—based on historical close rates—forecast accuracy rose from 62% to 84%.

How Leadtime Solves It:

In the Sales / Estimates area, the Estimates Overview shows all open offers, project proposals, and express quotations. Each estimate includes value, probability, and expected close date.

You can now create a weighted forecast: An offer worth €100,000 with 50% probability flows into the forecast at €50,000. This creates a realistic picture—not a guarantee, but a well-informed projection.

Example:

An agency has three offers out: €40,000, €50,000, and €30,000. Based on historical close rates, they expect 60%, 70%, and 40% probability. That gives: €24,000 + €35,000 + €12,000 = €71,000 expected revenue in the next quarter. This number flows directly into the revenue forecast—not as a guarantee, but as a well-informed estimate.

2. Ongoing Projects: The Core of Your Short-Term Planning

Running projects are your "in-flight revenue." They shape your short-term capacity and your invoicing schedule. For most agencies, this is where the bulk of revenue lives in the coming weeks and months.

An IT systems house in Munich—founded in 2016, now 45 employees, specialized in software integration—had a transparency problem in 2024: Nobody knew exactly when ongoing projects would be invoiced. There were project plans, but they weren't synchronized with accounting. The result: The CFO discovered every month—to his surprise—that either 40% more or 30% fewer invoices went out than expected. Cash flow planning? Impossible.

How Leadtime Solves It:

The Turnover Insights Dashboard shows when revenue from current projects will be invoiced. You can filter by Revenue Type: hourly billing, fixed-price packages, subscriptions, milestone billing.

By selecting relevant projects and time ranges, you visualize how ongoing work translates into future cash flow.

Example:

A website project spans three months, with milestone billing at the end of each phase: €15,000 after design, €20,000 after development, €10,000 after go-live. The forecast spreads the expected revenue realistically over the timeline—rather than cramming everything into a single month.

3. Retainers & Subscriptions: Your Predictable Foundation

Retainers and recurring subscriptions provide the stable baseline of your forecast. They're predictable, repeatable, and often form the backbone of your cash flow.

A consulting firm in Cologne—specialized in change management, about 30 consultants—restructured their business strategy in 2023: Instead of relying on one-off projects, they deliberately sold monthly retainers. The result: 60% of monthly revenue is now predictable, independent of new deals. Management can now realistically plan ahead—hires, investments, growth—without being on a knife's edge every month.

How Leadtime Solves It:

The Turnover Insights Dashboard also shows recurring revenue. You filter by Revenue Types like Fixed Subscriptions or Variable Subscriptions and see exactly how much predictable revenue comes in each month.

This is your "floor"—the revenue you can count on without closing a single new deal.

Example:

Five clients each have a €5,000 monthly retainer. That's €25,000 predictable revenue every month. This baseline is layered on top of ongoing projects and open opportunities.

From Insights to Decisions: What You Do With a Real Forecast

Forecasting only matters if it drives real decisions. Once your pipeline is visible and your revenue streams are mapped out, you can:

Plan hiring based on realistic workload forecasts, not panic.

Prioritize sales efforts to close deals that align with available capacity.

Smooth out cash flow because you know what's coming and when.

Avoid overload by spotting capacity crunches before they happen.

Example:

If your forecast shows two large projects likely to close in the same month, you can act proactively: Book freelancers, shift timelines, or adjust offers before chaos hits. No more surprises—just smart, proactive planning.

Why It Works

Forecasting isn't about adding more spreadsheets to your stack. It's about turning existing operational data into strategic insights.

Leadtime connects sales, project execution, and billing in one system—which means your forecasts are always based on real, up-to-date data, not guesswork.

Your pipeline becomes more than a list of deals. It becomes the engine of predictable growth.